Sanding our assholes with 150 grit. Slowly. Lovingly.

My last 8 trades

My trading bot just closed a short trade for 14 pips profit.... $140 cha-ching hehe.

Of course like any system it also loses money.

I'm trading EURO/DOLLAR

In summary here are the last 8 trades starting from 3 July:

$1550.00
  $130.00
  $270.00
  $40.00
  $250.00
-$1360.00
  $70.00
  $140.00

$1090.00 so far for the month....

I'm currently $70.00 in the red on a long position on EUR/USD. A trade always starts at -$30.00 because of the 3 pip spread, so I'm 4 pips in the wrong direction at the moment.
Permalink Bluebeard 
July 16th, 2007 6:34pm
that real or fake money?
Permalink Bot Berlin 
July 16th, 2007 6:35pm
Real dollars...losing $1360 is real pain :P
Permalink Bluebeard 
July 16th, 2007 6:38pm
Hard to say what to think of these sorts of posts.

Someone might say they made $100,000 on a stock in a week, but fail to mention the $200,000 they lost the week before, or on another stock.

Need to look at the whole portfolio over the long term to know if they are even making money. Even then, it could be blind luck.
Permalink Practical Economist 
July 16th, 2007 6:40pm
It's always blind luck. The guys with the bandwidth and the algorithms are just fooling themselves.

Just ask the geniuses at LTCM.
Permalink LeftWingPharisee 
July 16th, 2007 6:43pm
"Need to look at the whole portfolio over the long term to know if they are even making money. Even then, it could be blind luck."

I wouldnt mind investing, 2000-3000 in this forex stuff (soon) and then seeing if I could get $100-200 a month out of it.
Permalink Bot Berlin 
July 16th, 2007 6:43pm
i;ve done a fiar bit of this in the past. Looking at your trades, i would be carefull using this strat with money you cant afford to lose.

Your loss is VERY severe compared to you winnings, and a bad month or two (or six, which happens to everyone over the long run) will decimate your portfolio.

Maby think about tightening your stops? It will reduce your win/loss %, but you would be able to survive. Remember, with trading, surviving the bad times is the key.

Anyway, good luck with it. If you want any help, feel free to email me
Permalink Send private email ak 
July 16th, 2007 6:46pm
"Someone might say they made $100,000 on a stock in a week, but fail to mention the $200,000 they lost the week before, or on another stock."

Very true. In fact most trading systems are sold by showing where they traded well and neglecting to show the bad patches.

The aim of my blog will be to show all trades good or bad and build a history of trades so that people can see for themselves how real forex trading happens.
Permalink Bluebeard 
July 16th, 2007 6:46pm
It'd be more interesting if you added a short sentence to each one. Even (or perhaps especially) if the odd one was "because I fucking well felt like it" or "because the cat chewed through a dollar bill and euro notes ar emore durable".
Permalink Send private email Colm 
July 16th, 2007 6:48pm
Ok, that sounds good.
Permalink Practical Economist 
July 16th, 2007 6:53pm
"It'd be more interesting if you added a short sentence to each one."

I hate to disappoint but all these trades happen mechanically based on a system I've devised.

There's no emotion involved, except for the ball-tightening feeling I experience when a trade goes pear-shaped and I have to force myself to stick with the system.

The poster above is correct that my losses are severe because my stops are wide. It is, however, cash that I can afford to lose. It's not scared money, so I'm happy to experiment.

What I can say is that the system is thoroughly backtested without overoptimization and requires wide stops and profits to *be* profitable.
Permalink Bluebeard 
July 16th, 2007 6:58pm
hmmm, no offence, but those profits arn't very large. You are looking at almost 10/1 risk/reward.  How many years did you backtest over? And did you use tick data or candle data? Did you make sure that you covered a trending period and a ranging period in backtesting?

I'm not trying to put you down, just trying to make sure you don't make the same mistakes i have made in the past :) You have the right attitude though - willingness to let the system make the decisions - and that puts you ahead of 90% of the people learning to trade.

Out of curosity, what indicators do you use to determine entry/exit? Most of the systems I have developed tend to show a different pattern of risk/reward win/loss (eg 1/5, 40%) and I am always looking to diversify :)

Anyway, best of luck with it all. Based on your attitude, and the fact it looks like you have done this for a while and learnt some of the hard lessons, you should do well.
Permalink Send private email ak 
July 16th, 2007 8:32pm
The US market has been rolling.  I'm surprised people have settled on currency exchanges, like some new trading fad.
Permalink LinuxOrBust 
July 17th, 2007 3:15am
How many years did you backtest over?

I only have one year of data from the market maker I use.

I also get historical data from Finam here:

http://www.fin-rus.com/analysis/export/default.asp

And did you use tick data or candle data?

Candle

Did you make sure that you covered a trending period and a ranging period in backtesting?

Yes, and the system is more predictable in a ranging period.

The big stops or profits happen in the trending periods.
Permalink Bluebeard 
July 17th, 2007 4:51am

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