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in a recession?

We have weak end demand virtually everywhere -- in restaurants, autos, durables and at the low end of the consumer area, with pricing pressure on everything from oil to milk. We are not getting a classic recession, probably due to the fact that inventory management has been so much better than it was 30 years ago, largely due to computers. There aren't the massive cancellations of orders that existed in the classic recessions in the '60s and '70s. I can't tell you the last time I have seen a retailer with seriously excessive inventory. The message from this part of the play is that while the consumer is weak, it has basically put the Fed on hold for the last year and for the foreseeable future, because if the Fed raises interest rates it is going to make the sectors that are weak much weaker, and that is not going to accomplish anything.
Permalink guess worker 
July 28th, 2007 11:55pm
I think you are the worker behind curtain number 2. Was the a good guess, worker?
Permalink son of parnas 
July 28th, 2007 11:56pm
SoP has been drinking a bit more than her usual.
Permalink Send private email sharkfish 
July 28th, 2007 11:57pm
Deflation maybe?
Permalink Aaron 
July 28th, 2007 11:58pm
> SoP has been drinking a bit more than her usual.

About the same. It must be the 200 Hindu squats :-)
Permalink son of parnas 
July 29th, 2007 12:02am
Heh. Funny but those make me intoxicated too.  I probably couldn't pass a sobriety test afterward--trying to stand on one leg and all would be difficult.
Permalink Send private email sharkfish 
July 29th, 2007 12:18am

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